Multan Electric Supply Company (MEPCO) is supplying power to civil districts of Multan, Sahiwal, Bahawalpur, Bahawal Nagar, Muzzaffargarh, Dera Ghazi Khan, Rahim Yar Khan, Vehari, Pakpattan, Khanewal, Leiah, and Rajanpur. MEPCO came into existence in the year 2001 after unbundling of the WAPDA system, in his MEPCO Jurisdiction Map.
Earlier it was known as Multan Area Electricity Board (AEB). Its distribution network in the year 2001 comprised of seventy-one 132 kV and thirty-four 66 kV sub-stations and by the year 2013-14, sixty-eight 132 kV and twenty-seven 66 kV sub-stations have started to function in the company.
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Peak demand of MEPCO in the year 2013-14 was recorded as 1887 MW, energy sale was 11437 GWh and energy purchased was 13859 GWh. The total number of consumers in this year was 4.86 million out of which domestic consumers were 4.27 million, commercial was 0.45 million and agricultural consumers were 0.075 million.
In the year 2013-14, MEPCO’s total sales in terms of megawatt were 1558 MW, for the domestic sector it was 766 MW while for the medium & large industries and small industries it was 793 MW, and 18 MW respectively.
The shares of the domestic sector and industrial sector were 48%and 27% respectively with respect to total energy sales, which is not a healthy sign.
This forecast has been computed based on Power Market Survey (PMS) methodology by the MEPCO (PMS) team under the supervision of planning power, NTDC.
The year 2013-14 has been taken as base and the forecast horizon is ten years up to 2023-24. The base year sale data (feeder wise consumer category wise energy sale) and the expected spot loads data at the locations of different sub-stations have been collected by MEPCO power market survey team.
Energy sale data for the base year have also been adjusted for the estimates of unserved energy (load shedding) to have a realistic sales figure. Forecast results show that in the year 2017-18 and 2023-24 energy sales will be 21098 GWh and 31727 GWh, peak demand will be 4535 MW and 6113 MW, and energy purchased will be 25146 GWh and 36796 GWh respectively.
The annual average compound growth rate of energy sale, peak demand, and energy purchased is 7.89 %, 5.53%, and 7.42% respectively by the year 2023-24 with respect to 2013-14.
A realistic forecast, saves over investment as well as under investment, meaning thereby timely recovery of revenue and no constraints in the supply of power (load shedding) respectively. This kind of forecast can only be prepared by applying proper methodology with authentic data.
The results of previous PMS forecasts were very close to the actual which proves the authenticity of methodology and data. This report highlights the salient features of the load forecast of the company. Planning Power, NTDC firmly believes that the readers’ comments/suggestions on this report will help in improving energy and demand forecast in future.